The post-Covid urban exodus, myth or reality?

The experts

According to many press articles, the metropolises no longer benefit as much as before from their power of attraction and worse, become almost repulsive. Before the health crisis arrived, demetropolisation was promoted here and there, metropolises being sometimes seen as foils. A study intends to quantitatively evaluate the phenomenon of urban exodus, if there is a phenomenon. Entitled “Urban exodus: impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on residential mobility”, it was piloted by the French Rural Network and the Plan Urbanisme Construction Architecture. Here are the first lessons.

The first question was methodological: what data to use? The quantitative approach favored, with the support of the Leboncoin company, data relating to searches carried out by Internet users, by comparing their geolocation and the targeted destinations. With 14 million unique monthly visitors to the site, the study covers 3 years of browsing and 3.5 billion consultations.

This approach has the advantage of collecting data in real time without having to wait for INSEE data. On the other hand, the data studied do not correspond to actual moves but rather to intentions or aspirations. However, in a period of confinement, many carry out research without seriously considering residential mobility. An increase in visits to the real estate section of Leboncoin did take place in 2020-2021.

The results do not bear witness to the territorial rupture so often accepted. It is difficult to find traces of a massive reorientation of populations despite the intense territorial marketing campaigns orchestrated by the territories.

We observe the persistence of dynamics that already existed, with a stability of flows within metropolises or metropolis-metropolis. On the other hand, the dynamics of periurbanisation remain strong and stable.

All this questions the notion of urban exodus. A Parisian who has become a Nantes resident, leaving the heart of the city for a peri-urban area, leaving a metropolis for a medium-sized city, are they urban exoduses? In the strict sense, no, and this term must be put into perspective.

Regarding city-countryside flows, it is clear that they are small in quantity and have not changed much. The number of urban dwellers who have become rural since 2020 remains comparable to the level of 2019. In addition, the attractiveness of the coast of western France is undeniable, but this phenomenon is not particularly accentuated.

If certain profiles emerge, such as pre-retirees or teleworking executives, for example, the surge in the countryside or small towns has not taken place. One may wonder what the changes are. There are quite new flows that have been created between certain urban centers and certain rural areas since 2020. These flows are not massive and therefore do not emerge on first reading. But one thing must be made clear: a few dozen inhabitants of large cities who settle in rural areas or small towns is a significant phenomenon for the reception area while it remains insignificant for the departure. Urban exodus therefore refers to very small flows that can have major effects locally.

It is not hazardous to admit the persistence of the force of attraction of metropolises and centrality despite the fantasies of green, which have undoubtedly been stronger for some time. The health crisis that we have known for 2 years has not put an end to the classic territorial processes of metropolisation, peri-urbanization and coastalization. We finally wonder if the urban exodus that we talk a lot about is not a simple extension of longer-term dynamics that are characterized by departures from the city to… cities.

The crisis does not empty urban areas. The attractive territories remain attractive, the less attractive remain so too. The world of tomorrow will be urban and still metropolitan, even if new behaviors (bi-residence, telework) could benefit certain well-connected rural areas.

 

Link to the study: https://popsu.archi.fr/sites/default/files/2022-02/PopsuTerritoires-exodeurbain_v12.pdf

The quantitative part of this survey is the result of the joint work of Alexandre Coulondre (LATTS, DIT Conseil), Marianne Bléhaut (Crédoc) and Claire Juillard (OGGI Conseil).

Release date: March 2022